Millions of North Korea shells supplied to Russia may not be effective

North Korea has sent over six thousand shipping containers loaded with weapons and ammunition to Russia in recent months. Millions of artillery shells have likely been received by Moscow but some reports indicate they are not very effective on the battlefield. Here's what we know.

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik revealed that North Korea has sent 6,700 shipping containers to Russia that might have included as many as three million 152-millimeter artillery shells or five-hundred thousand 120-millimeter rounds.

“It could possibly be a mix of the two, and you can say that at least several million shells have been sent,” Shin told the South Korean news agency Yonhap according to The Telegraph, which noted that Shin went on to say North Korean factories “operating at full capacity”.

However, despite the additional ammunition being sent to Russia, reports suggest that as many as half the North Korean shells being used against Ukraine don't work according to Vadym Skibitsky, the Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine.

Skibitsky told Interfax Ukraine that Russia has likely imported at least 1.5 million artillery shells from North Korea but said that the "munitions are from the 70s and 80s. Half of them do not function, and the rest require either restoration or inspection before use."

In October 2023, North Korea delivered more than one thousand containers of munitions and military equipment to Russia to help Vladimir Putin with his invasion of Ukraine according to the White House, which left many wondering how the help would impact the conflict. 

War analysts worried that Putin’s visit with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un at a Russian spaceport in September would result in Pyongyang opening its warehouses up to Moscow to refill the Kremlin’s munitions stocks. 

The Associated Press reported Kim traveled to meet with Putin and over his six-day trip to Russia visited several key military sites. The two leaders discussed boosting defense ties but neither country provided additional details. 

One important policy item that was likely discussed by the two leaders at the time was sorely needed munitions and military equipment refills that Moscow requires to continue its war in Ukraine. However, these refills came at a price for the world

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stated Pyongyang was looking to exchange North Korean munitions and equipment for more sophisticated technology from Russia to aid its nuclear program. 

The White House released images it said revealed that the trade was already underway with more than one thousand containers being loaded on a Russian-flagged ship before being unloaded in Russia and sent west by train.  

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies released images of the increased rail traffic at the border between Russia and North Korea taken via satellite on October 5th showed unprecedented numbers of train cars. 

The think tank concluded: “In the aftermath of the Kim-Putin summit, satellite images as of October 5, 2023, captured a dramatic and unprecedented level of freight railcar traffic at North Korea’s Tumangang Rail Facility located on the North Korea-Russia border.” 

To put the scale of what occurred in perspective, The Independent’s Russell Hope noted more than 70 railcars were identified at the Tumangang Rail Facility while only 20 have been visible at the facility over the previous five years.  

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies concluded that North Korea started to transfer artillery to Russia likely in support of the country’s war in Ukraine. This was also confirmed by John Kirby on October 13th. 

“Due in part to our sanctions and export controls, Russia has been forced to desperately search around the world for military equipment,” Kirby explained to reporters. “We now have information that North Korea has delivered arms to Russia for use in Ukraine.”

“Our information indicates that in recent weeks, North Korea has provided Russia with more than 1000 containers of military equipment and munitions,” Kirby added before he went on to condemn North Korea for providing military equipment to Moscow. 

Kirby also noted that the United States was monitoring the situation closely to see if the Kremlin would provide Pyongyang with material. Kirby said the partnership and possible transfer of technologies undermined regional stability and global non-proliferation. 

The news of North Korea’s munitions and military equipment transfers came just one day after an American aircraft carrier group arrived in South Korea. The carrier group was set to stay until October 16th following military drills earlier in the week. 

The United States warned North Korea against sending to Russia and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters in early September Pyongyang would pay a price if it decided to ship weapons to Moscow to assist its war against Ukraine. 

“Providing weapons to Russia for use on the battlefield to attack grain silos and heating infrastructure of major cities as we head into winter… this will not reflect well on North Korea, and they will pay a price for this in the international community,” Sullivan said. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is set to visit North Korea on October 19th and 20th according to Reuters, which pulled its information from North Korean state media and Russia’s foreign ministry. Unfortunately, the reason for the visit is not known.